After being sentenced to three years in prison in the Toshakhana case, the founder of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested from his residence in Lahore on August 5, 2023. Today marks two full years of his imprisonment. To mark the occasion, PTI is holding a 'nationwide protest' across the country. This protest was announced last month by Imran Khan via a post on his X (formerly Twitter) account. It is important to note that Imran Khan’s social media team manages and posts messages on his behalf. The post stated: "On August 5, my unjust imprisonment will complete two full years. That day will mark the peak of our nationwide protest movement." Whether today’s protest against political imprisonment will be successful remains to be seen, but before that, there are a few key points that need to be considered.
Sheikh Talha Tariq, a party worker from Arifwala Tehsil in Punjab, believes that the way the party affairs are currently being run may not align with Imran Khan’s vision. Talha says he is disappointed with the current PTI leadership, but remains hopeful that the party will regain its lost popularity in the days to come. He adds, “Recently, we held a rally from Burewala Road to Sahiwal Road with only around 100 workers in attendance. It’s certainly a discouraging time for PTI supporters, but despite that, Imran Khan remains popular.” Idrees Cheema, from the Sambrial Tehsil of Sialkot, expresses concerns about the present political direction and leadership of PTI, saying, “The current leadership isn’t as politically capable as it should be.” However, Idrees also believes, “Regardless of the leadership’s direction, in the end, it will all happen according to Imran Khan’s will.” Many PTI supporters also said that, in the beginning, they had hoped their leader would be released from prison soon. But now, as Imran Khan’s imprisonment drags on, it is creating growing concern and disillusionment among his supporters.
During the peak of PTI's popularity, many prominent figures joined the party. However, after the May 9 events, not only did some longstanding leaders part ways with PTI, but others who had joined before the 2018 general elections also chose to leave. We spoke to several leaders who either joined Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) before the 2018 elections or supported the party as independent candidates. Many of these leaders, especially in Punjab, believe that even today, the winning symbol in their constituencies remains Imran Khan and the PTI ticket. Usama Asghar Ali, from the southern Punjab city of Layyah, was elected as a Member of the Provincial Assembly (MPA) for PP-282 with the support of PTI. He had joined the party shortly before the last general elections, at a time when Imran Khan was in jail. He states, “The way we joined PTI back then is the same way we still stand with the party today.” He adds, “Voters are eager for Imran Khan’s release. While they may feel disappointed when it seems unlikely to happen soon, even then, they don’t consider switching loyalties.” Responding to the same question, PTI leader Naeem Haider Panjotha claimed that despite the tough circumstances surrounding the party, and many people choosing different paths, several key political figures active in electoral politics are still considering joining PTI and are in contact with the central leadership.
Despite Imran Khan being in jail, his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), managed to build strong setups in several constituencies during the last general elections. At the provincial level, it was observed that in certain constituencies, candidates from rival political parties were either defeated by PTI candidates or faced stiff competition. However, the important question now is: Does the same voter trend still exist today? In this context, Mushaid Raza, a PML-N ticket holder who lost to a PTI candidate from NA-68 in Mandi Bahauddin, says that the style of politics PTI has followed over the past two years has caused a visible change in voter behavior in both urban and rural areas. He outlines several reasons for this shift. According to him, in the current political climate, PTI voters and supporters appear disappointed with their local leadership, primarily because those they elected have failed to deliver and provide any meaningful relief. “In the constituencies, there’s a growing perception among voters that since PML-N is in power in Punjab, its voters are heard more and their issues are addressed more effectively.” Mushaid Raza believes that the PTI candidates in his constituency are no longer as strong as they once were. A similar view is shared by Mian Imtiaz Ahmed, a PML-N candidate from NA-172, Rahim Yar Khan, who also lost to a PTI-backed candidate. He says that “voters are now changing their thinking.” According to Mian Imtiaz, Maryam Nawaz’s performance as Punjab’s Chief Minister is creating relief for her party’s supporters, and this impact is already becoming visible. However, he adds that predicting the mindset of voters closer to the next general election is still premature. Chaudhry Abid Raza, a PML-N leader and former MNA from Gujrat, has a slightly different perspective. He says, “PTI’s vote bank existed before and still exists today.” In his view, despite tough circumstances, PTI’s political strength has not been entirely broken.
Political analysts believe that despite the fallout from the May 9 events and the crackdown on Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), Imran Khan and his party remain a significant political force in the country. According to political analyst Ziauddin Khan, “The establishment views Imran Khan not only as a national security risk but also as a threat to the country’s foreign and economic policy. However, at the same time, the establishment recognizes him as a powerful political force.” Journalist Azaz Syed echoes a similar view, stating, “The state still considers Imran Khan its greatest threat.” He adds, “The state does not see PTI as a threat in itself, but Imran Khan, as a political leader, is undoubtedly perceived as dangerous.”
Zia Uddin Khan states that “PTI voters and supporters do not trust any leader in the party other than Imran Khan. Even in the past, major rallies were only successful when Imran Khan himself was present. This mindset among the voters and supporters is why Imran Khan’s imprisonment is having a significant impact on PTI and its political activities.” According to journalist Azaz Syed, PTI’s political strength has been severely affected due to Imran Khan being in jail. He explains, “The current PTI leadership is facing its own set of constraints, which they are struggling with.” However, PTI leader Naeem Haider Panjotha believes that Imran Khan’s imprisonment has not affected his popularity or that of the party. He says, “People voted for Imran Khan in the last election even when he was in jail, and today, the public still firmly stands with him. He remains the most popular public leader in Pakistan.” Explaining this further, he adds that ordinary citizens became part of PTI not just because of Imran Khan’s popularity, but because they were inspired by the ideology of the party.
PML-N leader Senator Irfan Siddiqui does not consider PTI a major political challenge for his party anymore, nor does he agree with the notion that PTI caused significant political damage to PML-N in the last elections. He said, “I don’t believe that PTI inflicted any major setback to PML-N in the 2024 general elections. The results are in front of everyone. Many stories have been told about electoral rigging, but no credible evidence has been presented so far.” According to Senator Irfan Siddiqui, “As for the current situation, Imran Khan is in jail after being convicted in several criminal cases. If we compare his cases with those of other politicians who have been jailed in the past, the charges against Imran Khan appear to be strong and clear.” When asked whether PML-N believes Imran Khan still holds public popularity, Irfan Siddiqui responded, “His popularity among the public has certainly declined, and in the present circumstances, he is a convicted prisoner. We do not consider him a political force anymore, and perhaps soon he and his party may also come to accept this reality.”
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